The PayPal Paradox

Yiannis Zourmpanos
9.75K Followers
(13min)

Summary

  • PayPal processed $417.2B in TPV during Q1 2025, with branded checkout growing 6% YoY on a leap-day adjusted basis.
  • Transaction margin dollars rose 7% YoY to $3.7B, with TM margin expanding 274 basis points to 47.7%, signaling healthier economics.
  • Venmo TPV surged over 50%, driving 20% revenue growth and 40% MAU growth in debit cards, reinforcing monetization progress.
  • Non-GAAP EPS grew 23% in Q1, with FY26 consensus at $5.61, reflecting 12% YoY growth on sustainable levers.
  • Despite consistent beats, PYPL trades at 12.7x FY26 P/E and 8.5x FCF, suggesting asymmetric upside to $90+.

:Silhouette of upset Australian woman over PayPal logo

chameleonseye

Investment Thesis

In a digital payments landscape increasingly dominated by frictionless, platform-native rivals such as Apple Pay (AAPL) and Google Pay (GOOG), PayPal's (NASDAQ:PYPL) legacy positioning is often dismissed as that of a

This article was written by

9.75K Followers
Hi, I'm Yiannis. Spotting winners before they break out is what I do best.Experience: Previously worked at Deloitte and KPMG in external/internal auditing and consulting. Education: Chartered Certified Accountant, Fellow Member of ACCA Global, with BSc and MSc degrees from U.K. business schools. Investment Style: Spotting high-potential winners before they break out, focusing on asymmetric opportunities (with at least upside potential of 2-3X outweighing the downside risk). By leveraging market inefficiencies and contrarian insights, we seek to maximize long-term compounding while protecting against capital impairment.Risk management is paramount—we seek a strong margin of safety to protect against capital impairment while maximizing long-term compounding. Our 4-5 year investment horizon allows us to ride out volatility, ensuring that patience, discipline, and intelligent capital allocation drive outsized returns over time.Investment Methodology: Identifying High-Conviction Opportunities1️⃣ Leadership & Management Analysis • Proven track record in scaling businesses. • Smart capital allocation and insider ownership. • Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance. 2️⃣ Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning • Strong technology moat and first-mover advantage. • Network effects that drive exponential growth. • Market penetration in high-growth industries. 3️⃣ Financial Health & Risk Management • Sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow. • Strong balance sheet and long-term survival runway. • Avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness. 4️⃣ Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward • Revenue multiples vs. peers and DCF modeling. • Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis. • Ensuring downside protection with massive upside. 5️⃣ Portfolio Construction & Risk Control • Core Positions (50-70%) – High-confidence, stable plays. • Growth Bets (20-40%) – High-risk, high-reward opportunities. • Speculative (5-10%) – Moonshot disruptors with massive potential.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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