The PayPal Paradox
Summary
- PayPal processed $417.2B in TPV during Q1 2025, with branded checkout growing 6% YoY on a leap-day adjusted basis.
- Transaction margin dollars rose 7% YoY to $3.7B, with TM margin expanding 274 basis points to 47.7%, signaling healthier economics.
- Venmo TPV surged over 50%, driving 20% revenue growth and 40% MAU growth in debit cards, reinforcing monetization progress.
- Non-GAAP EPS grew 23% in Q1, with FY26 consensus at $5.61, reflecting 12% YoY growth on sustainable levers.
- Despite consistent beats, PYPL trades at 12.7x FY26 P/E and 8.5x FCF, suggesting asymmetric upside to $90+.
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