Nvidia's Q1 Detonation: Why This AI Juggernaut Is About To Rip Higher

(13min)

Summary

  • I reiterate my Buy rating on Nvidia, expecting strong Q1 FY2026 results and optimistic guidance, especially regarding the AI robotics business.
  • Nvidia's data center and AI demand remain robust, with Blackwell architecture driving growth and industry forecasts supporting continued expansion through 2026.
  • While U.S.-China export controls create uncertainty, Nvidia is strategically navigating restrictions with China-specific chips and a new Shanghai R&D center, aiming to fulfill regional demand.
  • Despite potential Q1 gross margin pressure from a $5.5B charge, strong pricing power and long-term demand should support recovery; current valuation appears attractive.
  • Nvidia's evolving revenue mix supports a premium multiple. In the shorter term, I see a price target at $167.5/share, giving me an upside potential of 23.7% to the current price. NVDA is a "Buy" before its Q1 earnings release.

Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.

BING-JHEN HONG/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Intro & Thesis

My investment coverage of Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) spans a couple of years here on Seeking Alpha. The last time I covered the stock was in mid-March 2025

Hold On! Can't find the equity research you've been looking for?

Now you can get access to the latest and highest-quality analysis of recent Wall Street buying and selling ideas with just one subscription to Beyond the Wall Investing! There is a free trial and a special discount of 10% for you. Join us today!

This article was written by

12.63K Followers
Daniel Sereda is chief investment analyst at a family office whose investments span continents and diverse asset classes. This requires him to navigate through a plethora of information on a daily basis. His expertise is in filtering this wealth of data to extract the most critical ideas. He runs the investing group Beyond the Wall Investing in which he provides access to the same information that institutional market participants prioritize in their analysis. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NVDA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

About NVDA Stock

SymbolLast Price% Chg
Market Cap
PE
Yield
Rev Growth (YoY)
Short Interest
Prev. Close
Compare to Peers

More on NVDA

Related Stocks

SymbolLast Price% Chg
NVDA
--
NVDA:CA
--