MongoDB: Valuations Stretched, Needs Perfection To Deliver

The Alpha Analyst
541 Followers
(7min)

Summary

  • Even under extremely bullish DCF assumptions, MongoDB, Inc.'s intrinsic value falls short of current price, indicating little upside and stretched valuation.
  • MDB benefits from AI in later phases; current earnings don't reflect transformative gains, unlike earlier beneficiaries like chipmakers or hyperscalers.
  • Weak FY 2026 guidance, macro uncertainty, and slower enterprise spending suggest near-term execution challenges are not fully priced in.
  • MDB’s long-term potential is intact, but current levels offer poor risk-reward; better re-entry lies below $150.

young beautiful and attractive sport woman in runner sportswear breathing gasping and taking a break tired and exhausted after running workout on Autumn

OcusFocus/iStock via Getty Images

MongoDB, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDB) reported strong performance for FY 2025, yet shares corrected on the back of weak guidance for the year ahead. My hypothesis is that the recent bounce back has placed MDB in an overvalued zone

This article was written by

541 Followers
I am a stock analyst with over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management. My focus is on equity valuation, market trends, and portfolio optimization to uncover high-growth investment opportunities. As a former Vice President at Barclays, I led teams in model validation, stress testing, and regulatory finance, developing a deep expertise in both fundamental and technical analysis. Alongside my research partner (also my wife), I co-author investment research, combining our complementary strengths to deliver high-quality, data-driven insights. Our approach blends rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation. We have a particular interest in macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis, aiming to provide actionable ideas for investors seeking to outperform the market.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

About MDB Stock

SymbolLast Price% Chg
Market Cap
PE
Yield
Rev Growth (YoY)
Short Interest
Prev. Close
Compare to Peers

More on MDB

Related Stocks

SymbolLast Price% Chg
MDB
--