The Big 4 Recession Indicators

May 19, 2025 11:05 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 2 Comments
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Summary

  • Nonfarm employment is currently 0.00% off its all-time high (data through April 2025).
  • Industrial production is currently 0.26% off its all-time high from February 2025 (data through April 2025).
  • Real retail sales are currently 1.18% off its all-time high from April 2021 (data through April 2025).
  • Real personal income is currently 0.00% off its all-time high (data through March 2025).

USD dollar banknote is torn with recession wording on red background for United of America risk of great economic depression crisis concept.

Dilok Klaisataporn

By Jennifer Nash

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close

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