Rocky Brands' Optimistic Guidance Will Be Extremely Hard To Achieve

Quipus Capital
1.56K Followers
(7min)

Summary

  • Rocky Brands posted solid 1Q25 results, driven by favorable weather and a shift toward higher-margin DTC and premium wholesale sales.
  • Despite heavy China exposure and surging tariffs, management maintained FY25 guidance, relying on inventory, rapid sourcing shifts, and price hikes.
  • I am skeptical RCKY can offset tariff and supply chain headwinds; guidance seems overly optimistic given likely sales and margin pressures.
  • With high leverage, limited cash, and unattractive valuation, I maintain my Hold rating, as downside risks outweigh the potential upside.

Tools of the Trade

Willie B. Thomas/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Rocky Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ:RCKY) released 1Q25 results in late April, just days before the announcement of the reciprocal reduction of tariffs between the US and China.

Surprisingly, despite having 50% of sourcing coming from China, the company

This article was written by

1.56K Followers
Long-only investment, evaluating companies from an operational, buy-and-hold perspective.Quipus Capital does not focus on market-driven dynamics and future price action. Instead, our articles focus on operational aspects, understanding the long-term earnings power of companies, the competitive dynamics of the industries where they participate, and buying companies that we would like to hold independently of how the price moves in the future. Most QC calls will be holds, and that is by design. Only a very small fraction of companies should be a buy at any point in time. However, hold articles provide important information for future investors and a healthy dose of skepticism to a relatively bullish-biased market.Disclaimer: All of the author's articles are written on an "as is" basis and without warranty. They represent the author's opinion only and in no way constitute professional investment advice. It is the responsibility of the reader to conduct their due diligence and seek investment advice from a licensed professional before making any investment decisions. The author disclaims all liability for any actions taken based on the information contained in any articles published.

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