UnitedHealth: Why This Healthcare Giant Is Mispriced

Yiannis Zourmpanos
9.96K Followers
(13min)

Summary

  • UnitedHealth added 800,000 Medicare Advantage members in Q1 FY 2025, despite rising utilization and CMS model disruption in the segment.
  • Optum Health is on track to serve 5.4 million value-based care patients in FY 2025, driving higher-margin, preventive-focused revenue growth.
  • Optum contributes ~43% of UnitedHealth’s operating income, with Optum Rx achieving 14% topline growth and a $140B annual revenue run-rate.
  • UnitedHealth’s 2025 EPS guidance was lowered by ~12% due to unexpected medical cost spikes and CMS V28 model transition issues.
  • Shares trade at a 13x forward P/E and 0.75x sales, implying 32% upside to average Street targets and re-rating potential.

Molecular Structure with Particles

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Investment Thesis

UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) is navigating short-term pressure from rising medical utilization and CMS model changes, but its long-term thesis remains intact. UnitedHealthcare’s Medicare Advantage business is on pace to serve an additional 800,000 people in FY 2025 and

This article was written by

9.96K Followers
Hi, I'm Yiannis. Spotting winners before they break out is what I do best.Experience: Previously worked at Deloitte and KPMG in external/internal auditing and consulting. Education: Chartered Certified Accountant, Fellow Member of ACCA Global, with BSc and MSc degrees from U.K. business schools. Investment Style: Spotting high-potential winners before they break out, focusing on asymmetric opportunities (with at least upside potential of 2-3X outweighing the downside risk). By leveraging market inefficiencies and contrarian insights, we seek to maximize long-term compounding while protecting against capital impairment.Risk management is paramount—we seek a strong margin of safety to protect against capital impairment while maximizing long-term compounding. Our 4-5 year investment horizon allows us to ride out volatility, ensuring that patience, discipline, and intelligent capital allocation drive outsized returns over time.Investment Methodology: Identifying High-Conviction Opportunities1️⃣ Leadership & Management Analysis • Proven track record in scaling businesses. • Smart capital allocation and insider ownership. • Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance. 2️⃣ Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning • Strong technology moat and first-mover advantage. • Network effects that drive exponential growth. • Market penetration in high-growth industries. 3️⃣ Financial Health & Risk Management • Sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow. • Strong balance sheet and long-term survival runway. • Avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness. 4️⃣ Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward • Revenue multiples vs. peers and DCF modeling. • Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis. • Ensuring downside protection with massive upside. 5️⃣ Portfolio Construction & Risk Control • Core Positions (50-70%) – High-confidence, stable plays. • Growth Bets (20-40%) – High-risk, high-reward opportunities. • Speculative (5-10%) – Moonshot disruptors with massive potential.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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