Super Micro Computer: At 22x FCF, This Is A Steal

(7min)

Summary

  • I see $60 per share for Super Micro Computer, Inc. by summer 2026 as a realistic—and grounded—target.
  • I’m not ignoring the risks, but the fundamentals outweigh the noise.
  • I believe $1.1 billion in free cash flow next year is absolutely achievable.
  • I’m buying based on where SMCI stock is headed, not where it’s been.
  • Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Deep Value Returns get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »

Artificial Intelligence unit processing big data arrays. Powerful Quantum AI component. The future of AI technology tech background

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Investment Thesis

I won't sugarcoat it. Super Micro Computer, Inc. aka Supermicro (NASDAQ:SMCI) has baggage. We’re talking about missed targets, shaky management credibility, customer delays, and even some tariff overhang! These are real concerns, no doubt.

However, my thesis

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This article was written by

Michael Wiggins De Oliveira is an inflection investor. This means buying into cheap companies at the moment when their narrative is changing and the business is on a path toward becoming significantly more profitable over the next year.

With a focus on tech and “the Great Energy Transition (including uranium)”, Michael runs a concentrated portfolio with approximately 15 to 20 stocks and an average holding period of 18 months.

Through his 10+ years analyzing countless companies, Michael has accumulated outstanding professional experience in tech and energy and a following of over 40K on Seeking Alpha.

Michael is the leader of the Investing Group Deep Value Returns.

Features of the group include: Insights through his concentrated portfolio of value stocks, timely updates on stock picks, a weekly webinar for live advice, and "hand-holding" as-needed for new and experienced investors alike. Deep Value Returns also has an active, vibrant, and kind community easily accessible via chat.

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Seeking FCF is an associate of Michael Wiggins De Oliveira

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SMCI either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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