Akebia Therapeutics: Finally Showing Potential, But Wait For Q2 Earnings Before Buying

(12min)

Summary

  • Vafseo's strong US launch and outperforming Q1 revenues signal robust demand and even potential for eventual blockbuster status, but near-term profitability remains uncertain.
  • Auryxia's patent expiry and declining sales will pressure Akebia's financials, making Vafseo's adoption and expansion into non-dialysis markets crucial.
  • The VALOR Phase 3 study in non-dialysis CKD patients is a key catalyst, but approval and significant revenue are at least 2-3 years away.
  • Given recent share price gains and upcoming Q2 results, I recommend a 'wait and see' approach to assess sustained momentum before investing.

Hand holding kidney, anatomy donation paper cut, health care, organ donation.

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Investment Overview

I first covered Akebia Therapeutics (NASDAQ:AKBA) in a note for Seeking Alpha entitled "Vadadustat Approval Seems Make Or Break" all the way back in November 2019.

Vadadustat is an oral HIF

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This article was written by

13.37K Followers

Edmund Ingham is a biotech consultant. He has been covering biotech, healthcare, and pharma for over 5 years, and has put together detailed reports of over 1,000 companies. He leads the investing group Haggerston BioHealth.

The group is for both novice and experienced biotech investors. It provides catalysts to look out for and buy and sell ratings. It also provides product sales and forecasts for all the Big Pharmas, forecasting, integrated financial statements, discounted cash flow analysis and market by market analysis. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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