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At the end of last year, I published a popular Seeking Alpha article, "The Delusion Of The Tesla Robotaxi And Its Excessive Valuation." Now, the verdict is near, with Tesla, Inc. (
Tesla's Imminent Valuation Crash?
Summary
- Tesla, Inc.'s robotaxi ambitions are fundamentally flawed if you understand autonomous driving categories and problems with its strategy.
- Tesla's Full Self-Driving is only Level 2, while true robotaxi services require at least Level 4 autonomy, which is geofenced with municipal area fleets.
- Level 3 autonomy is rare and offers limited advantages over Level 2, with only a few models available and strict geographic restrictions.
- Achieving Level 5, fully autonomous driving—essential for Tesla's vision—is currently impossible, making their robotaxi strategy unrealistic.
- TSLA's $1.1 trillion valuation is at risk in the next six months.
Author of Autonomous Vehicles: Opportunities, Strategies, and Disruptions. Michael E. McGrath is a proven expert on the strategies of technology-based companies. He has researched autonomous vehicles for the last 3 years, leading to the original publication of this book, as well as the recently expanded and updated second edition. He is a founder of PRTM, the leading management consulting firm to technology companies, former CEO of i2Technologies and experienced board member, serving on four public company boards, as well as several venture capital-funded companies. In addition to Autonomous Vehicles, he is the author of Product Strategy for High-Technology Companies, which has been used by many technology-based companies to guide their strategies.
Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of TSLA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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