Olaplex Holdings: Strong Buy On EPS Rebound Driven By Margin Recovery

Moretus Research
471 Followers
(11min)

Summary

  • We initiate coverage on Olaplex Holdings Incorporated with a Strong Buy rating, driven by sharp EPS rebound and accelerating specialty retail sell-through.
  • Our implied value of $4 is derived from a 28.4x forward P/E multiple on our FY26E EPS estimate of $0.15.
  • We forecast FY25E and FY26E EPS of $0.11 and $0.15, respectively, both well above consensus, reflecting rapid brand momentum and quantifiable interest expense savings.
  • Risks include weakness in premium haircare, competitive spend, and failure of brand investment to translate to durable volume recovery and repeat demand.
  • We think OLPX has a compelling asymmetric R/R with near-term catalysts in specialty retail outperformance and margin recovery driving the sharp rerating opportunity for investors.

Hairdresser talking with customer sitting on chair

The Good Brigade/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Margin Recovery Unlocked; Strong Buy on EPS Rebound

We initiate on Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (OLPX) with a Strong Buy & $4 PT. Olaplex Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells proprietary hair care products distributed to salons, retailers, and consumers across

This article was written by

Moretus Research
471 Followers
Moretus Research delivers state-of-the-art, buy-side quality equity research for serious investors seeking clarity, conviction, and alpha. Focused on U.S. public markets, Moretus applies a structured, repeatable framework to identify companies with durable business models, mispriced cash flow potential, and intelligent capital allocation. Built on institutional standards, Moretus Research combines rigorous fundamental analysis with a high-signal, judgment-driven process—eschewing noise, narrative, and overly complex forecasting. Valuation is based on pragmatic, sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company’s business model and capital structure, with an emphasis on comparability, simplicity, and relevance. Research coverage tends to favor underappreciated companies undergoing structural change or temporary dislocation—situations where dispassionate analysis and variant perception can lead to asymmetric returns. All work reflects a deep respect for capital, discipline, and long-term compounding. Moretus Research aims to raise the standard for independent investment research—providing professional-grade insights, actionable valuation, and a strong filter for what truly matters in modern equity analysis.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of OLPX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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