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The consensus
The U.S. Bureau of Labor is set to release the CPI inflation data for May on Wednesday, June 11th. The analyst consensus expectations are that:
- The core CPI inflation will increase by 0.3% MoM, which
May CPI Preview: Can You Even Trust The Data?
Summary
- Core CPI inflation is expected to increase in May by 0.3%, which would push the annual core inflation to 3%.
- Core CPI could spike to 3.5-4% by the end of 2025, due to tariffs in hiring freeze at place, and additional tariffs likely imposed.
- However, economists are concerned that CPI data is not as accurate due to the hiring freeze at BLS; which means investors could be "flying blind" here.
- The S&P 500 Index bubble is inflating led by the AI theme, completely ignoring the inflation outlook and the unfolding stagflation.
Commodity Trading Adviser (CTA), member of National Futures Association. Professor of Finance, research on Global-macro issues. Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Corporate Accounting and Finance.
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