Scott Olson
The Bulls are closely watching the negotiations between the US and China. And as I see it, they are looking for hope for the positive in every move. At the same time, the S&P 500 and SPY indices are slowly rising
This V-Shaped Rebound Has No Solid Foundation
Summary
- The current market rally lacks solid fundamentals and is driven by outdated bullish habits and hope, not by real progress or solutions.
- Key risks include unresolved trade tensions, a more hawkish Fed, rising US national debt, and deepening political divisions, all undermining market stability.
- The Fed's support is gone, and the market is ignoring growing problems, making the risk/reward for long positions highly unattractive at these levels.
- I believe the upside is limited and the risk of a sharp decline is high; a return to a bear market is likely in the near future.
I started trading on the Moscow Exchange in 2005 as a private trader. Since 2010, I have been a financial markets analyst. I worked as an analyst in several brokerage companies in Russia and then in Ukraine since 2018. I also worked for a leading financial media outlet in Ukraine, covering global markets for Ukrainian readers. I specialize in macroeconomics and general market trends. I am also interested in history and philosophy. Although I received my economic education at Yakutsk State University, I am still largely self-taught. I see Seeking Alpha as a step up in my development, and an exit from the regional market to the global market with an opportunity to share my thoughts and ideas with the whole world.
Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of VIX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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