Middle East Conflict: What It Means For Macro And Markets

ING Economic and Financial Analysis
4.55K Followers

Summary

  • A further escalation in Iranian-Israeli tensions could take oil prices above $80 and would mean more upside for the dollar.
  • The Federal Reserve was already likely to keep rates on hold through the third quarter and the latest developments only reinforce that.
  • Markets had already responded on Thursday to escalating tensions around Iran, with German government bonds reaffirming their safe-haven status as they began to outperform swaps.

Map of Middle East: highlighted countries, looking west

Maxiphoto

By Warren Patterson, James Smith, James Knightley, Peter Vanden Houte, Francesco Pesole, Benjamin Schroeder, Bert Colijn, Jeroen van den Broek

What’s happened

Israel has launched coordinated strikes on Iran’s primary nuclear and ballistic missile facilities, as well as targeting

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