Sarepta Therapeutics' Elevidys Liver Deaths Trigger Selloff, A Contrarian Opportunity

Stephen Ayers
8.48K Followers

Summary

  • Sarepta's stock has plunged due to safety concerns with ELEVIDYS, including two deaths in non-ambulatory DMD patients and regulatory uncertainty.
  • Despite these setbacks, ELEVIDYS remains effective for ambulatory patients, and Sarepta is proactively addressing safety via enhanced immunosuppression and trial amendments.
  • Valuation appears depressed, with the market pricing in a worst-case scenario, but historical precedent (ZOLGENSMA) suggests recovery is possible if risks are managed.
  • I maintain a Buy rating on SRPT for risk-tolerant investors, but recommend a barbell approach due to ongoing volatility and unresolved safety questions.

DNA

peterschreiber.media

Overview

Sarepta Therapeutics’ stock (NASDAQ:SRPT) is down another 60% since my most recent Buy rating in March.

The undisputed DMD treatment champion has been struggling since it was reported in mid-March that a patient treated with ELEVIDYS, its flagship

This article was written by

8.48K Followers
With a background as an RN and an MBA, Stephen analyzes healthcare and tech stocks by combining clinical insight with rigorous valuation methods. He specializes in scenario-based DCF modeling, sensitivity analysis, and Monte Carlo simulations to uncover asymmetric risk-reward. His focus is on translating complex science and market dynamics into actionable investment theses. His influences include Superforecasting and Fooled by Randomness.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

This article is intended to provide informational content and should not be viewed as an exhaustive analysis of the featured company. It should not be interpreted as personalized investment advice with regard to "Buy/Sell/Hold/Short/Long" recommendations. The predictions and opinions presented are based on the author's analysis and reflect a probabilistic approach, not absolute certainty. Efforts have been made to ensure the information's accuracy, but inadvertent errors may occur. Readers are advised to independently verify the information and conduct their own research. Investing in stocks involves inherent volatility, risk, and speculative elements. Before making any investment decisions, it is crucial for readers to conduct thorough research and assess their financial circumstances. The author is not liable for any financial losses incurred as a result of using or relying on the content of this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

About SRPT Stock

SymbolLast Price% Chg
Market Cap
PE
Yield
Rev Growth (YoY)
Short Interest
Prev. Close
Compare to Peers

More on SRPT

Related Stocks

SymbolLast Price% Chg
SRPT
--