Apple Is Resilient, But Buybacks Are Diverting Capital From Its Moat (Upgrade)

Oliver Rodzianko
4.22K Followers
(9min)

Summary

  • As a long-term Apple Inc. customer, I deeply understand its value proposition. However, management is facing moat degradation from AI disruption in hardware, posing price-return risk.
  • Management would be wise to focus less on share buybacks at this point and more on plowing cash flow effectively into more aggressive M&A and better talent for R&D.
  • I forecast that AAPL stock will achieve a 10% annual return over the next 12 months. I also forecast that Apple will achieve a 10% annual return over the next decade.

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Since my last Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) analysis, the stock has lost -7% in price.

I've analyzed Apple for a long time, and it's no secret that the company is somewhat lagging in organic growth prospects compared to other Big

This article was written by

4.22K Followers
Oliver Rodzianko is the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Invictus Origin, a pioneering high-alpha investment management firm launched in May 2025, dedicated to becoming a globally recognized, actively managed fund. Invictus Origin is developing innovative portfolio strategies, notably through its flagship Nasdaq High-Alpha Black Swan Portfolio, strategically designed to sustainably outperform the Nasdaq-100. Distinctively, this portfolio maintains approximately 20% in strategic cash reserves, providing robust downside protection and exceptional flexibility during significant market disruptions. Oliver brings extensive experience as a macro-focused investment analyst specializing in public equities. His disciplined approach emphasizes fundamental valuation, long-term market cycles, and sector expertise in technology, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and energy. His investment process integrates U.S. market specialization with comprehensive international market awareness.Oliver has built a strong reputation as an Investment Analyst for leading platforms including Seeking Alpha, TipRanks, and GuruFocus, consistently providing high-level, actionable insights to a broad audience of sophisticated investors, including several industry-leading public figures who engage with his work regularly. His research and portfolio management capabilities are firmly on track to consistently deliver durable outperformance, capturing asymmetric upside by strategically navigating market dislocations and intrinsic value cycles. As CEO of Invictus Origin, Oliver leverages this expertise to establish a firm characterized by resilience, performance, and disciplined capital stewardship, further supported by the ongoing development of a complementary family office structure dedicated to lower-volatility capital preservation.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GOOG either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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