TSMC's AI Bet Pays Off

Yiannis Zourmpanos
9.95K Followers
(12min)

Summary

  • TSMC’s CoWoS margins now exceed 60–65%, with packaging volume expected to triple by year-end FY 2025.
  • AI and HPC now contribute 59% of revenue, up from 46% YoY, driving structural re-rating potential.
  • Advanced nodes (7nm and below) made up 73% of wafer revenue in Q1 FY 2025, including 22% from 3nm.
  • Management forecasts a 40%+ AI revenue CAGR through FY 2026, supporting a $300 bull-case target with 25x P/E.
  • Overseas fab expansion may cause 3–4% margin dilution, with Q2 gross margin guided down to 57–59%.
Technology circuit board and core, 3d rendering.

Jian Fan/iStock via Getty Images

Investment Thesis

Since the last TSMC (NYSE:TSM) coverage, the stock has surged 30% (vs. S&P 500’s 9%), following the thesis that its CoWoS advanced packaging can pivot from a margin-dilutive CapEx burden to a high-margin AI growth lever. As Q1 FY 2025

This article was written by

9.95K Followers
Hi, I'm Yiannis. Spotting winners before they break out is what I do best.Experience: Previously worked at Deloitte and KPMG in external/internal auditing and consulting. Education: Chartered Certified Accountant, Fellow Member of ACCA Global, with BSc and MSc degrees from U.K. business schools. Investment Style: Spotting high-potential winners before they break out, focusing on asymmetric opportunities (with at least upside potential of 2-3X outweighing the downside risk). By leveraging market inefficiencies and contrarian insights, we seek to maximize long-term compounding while protecting against capital impairment.Risk management is paramount—we seek a strong margin of safety to protect against capital impairment while maximizing long-term compounding. Our 4-5 year investment horizon allows us to ride out volatility, ensuring that patience, discipline, and intelligent capital allocation drive outsized returns over time.Investment Methodology: Identifying High-Conviction Opportunities1️⃣ Leadership & Management Analysis • Proven track record in scaling businesses. • Smart capital allocation and insider ownership. • Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance. 2️⃣ Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning • Strong technology moat and first-mover advantage. • Network effects that drive exponential growth. • Market penetration in high-growth industries. 3️⃣ Financial Health & Risk Management • Sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow. • Strong balance sheet and long-term survival runway. • Avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness. 4️⃣ Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward • Revenue multiples vs. peers and DCF modeling. • Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis. • Ensuring downside protection with massive upside. 5️⃣ Portfolio Construction & Risk Control • Core Positions (50-70%) – High-confidence, stable plays. • Growth Bets (20-40%) – High-risk, high-reward opportunities. • Speculative (5-10%) – Moonshot disruptors with massive potential.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TSM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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