Palantir: Another Valuation Attempt

Florian Muller
611 Followers
(8min)

Summary

  • 39% revenue growth in Q1, despite 71% US Commerical and 45% US Government increases, indicates international weakness.
  • Still, financials are impressive, with an expected adjusted FCF margin of 44% in 2025.
  • Nvidia's historical 5y and 1y FWD growth rates match or exceed those of Palantir, yet Palantir is 5x to 13x more expensive, depending on the underlying metric.
  • As Palantir is highly volatile, a 30-40% drop would not be surprising and bring the stock closer to an already optimistic DCF scenario.
Palantir Technologies

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In my last Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) coverage in February, I argued that mathematically, it is of course possible to create a Discounted Cashflow model that could justify a market cap in the hundreds of billions of dollars with only single-digit

This article was written by

611 Followers
Excellent academic Finance background and Finance professional with over five years of cumulative experience in Consulting & Audit Firms including a professional Valuation position, FP&A and Controlling positions, and Financial writing. I often rate hold/neutral, even when my inclination is bullish or bearish. Rating systems do not consider time horizons or investment strategies. My articles aim to inform, not to make decisions. My approach is mostly value-oriented. However, valuation is rarely an appropriate short- to mid-term timing indicator, but rather hints at long-term chances or risks. In my pieces, I assign the written word and data presented more value than a simple rating.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in PLTR over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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