Coinbase: Get In Now To Ride The Megatrend Of Stablecoin Adoption

Hunting Alpha
6.69K Followers
(11min)

Summary

  • The GENIUS Stablecoins Act could drive a 8x surge in USDC market cap, positioning Coinbase for outsized growth in its stablecoins revenue stream.
  • Coinbase’s Deribit acquisition is attractively valued and expands TAM into the much larger crypto derivatives market, boosting transaction volumes and profitability.
  • Declining stock-based compensation and the business model's strong operating leverage set the stage for significant margin expansion as the business scales.
  • COIN trades at reasonable valuations versus its comps and its historical valuation band.
  • I strongly believe COIN vs SPX500 is on the cusp of a big breakout to the upside.
USDC growth chart. Increasing value digital dollar. Coin with USDC logo. USD Coin in front of blue rising chart. USDC technology. Stablecoin coin equal to US dollar. Stable Cryptocurrency. 3d image

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Thesis

Coinbase (COIN) is benefiting from multiple promising catalysts, making me very bullish on the stock:

  1. The GENIUS Stablecoins Act can lead to a leap-frog acceleration in USDC adoption and growth
  2. The Deribit acquisition looks like a good deal that

This article was written by

6.69K Followers
I aim to provide alpha-generating investment ideas. I am an independent investor managing my family's portfolio, primarily via a Self Managed Super Fund. You can expect my articles to deliver a clearly structured, evidence-based thesis. But first and foremost, I encourage readers to judge me on my performance.I have a generalist approach as I explore, analyze and invest in any sector so long there is perceived alpha potential vs the S&P500. The typical holding period ranges between a few quarters to multiple years.A bit about how I approach research and coverage of a stock:I build and maintain comprehensive spreadsheets showing historical data on the financials, key metric disclosures, data on the guidance and surprise trends vs consensus estimates, time-series values of the valuations vs peers, data on key coincident or leading indicators of performance and other monitorables. In addition to the company's filings, I also keep tabs on relevant industry news and reports plus other people's coverage of the stock. In some cases, such as during times of a CEO change, I will do a deep dive on a key leader's background and his/her past performance record.I very rarely build DCFs and project financials many years out into the future as I don't think it adds much value. Instead, I find it more useful to assess how a company has delivered and the broad outlook on the 5 key drivers of a DCF valuation: revenues, costs and margins, cash flow conversion, capex and investments and the interest rates (which affect the discount rate/opportunity cost of capital).Associated with VishValue Research

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in COIN over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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