Gold And The Real Estate Cycle

Jun. 23, 2025 5:10 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 2 Comments
Alan Longbon
2.91K Followers
(12min)

Summary

  • The 20-year land cycle drives economic booms and busts, with gold prices historically peaking several years after land and stock market tops.
  • We are nearing the land cycle peak (2026), with gold expected to reach its next major high around 2031, potentially mirroring previous 4.5x price surges.
  • Key signals include homebuilder and stock market peaks, yield curve inversion, and recession, all aligning with gold’s late-cycle safe haven appeal.
  • I recommend conservative exposure via physically backed gold ETFs to capitalize on the anticipated gold price surge, while cautioning against leveraged or mining ETFs.

Gold Bars & Sitting on Financial Chart Background

spawns

The 20-year land cycle drives economic booms and busts, with gold prices historically peaking several years after land and stock market tops. We are nearing the land cycle peak (2026), with gold expected to reach its next major high around 2031, potentially mirroring

This article was written by

2.91K Followers
Trading real estate, equity and bond markets using fiscal flow analysis, functional finance, demographics and the real estate cycle.I stand on the shoulders of giants such as the work of Professors Wynne Godley, Micheal Hudson, Steve Keen, and William Mitchell, Roger Malcolm Mitchell, Warren Mosler, Robert P Balan and many others.One can analyze a country in seconds with four numbers as a % of GDP and these are G P X C where[G] Federal spending.[P] Non-Federal Spending.[X] Net Exports[C] CreditOne can then derive a set of accounting identities that are correct by definition.GDP = G + P + XAggregate Demand = G + P + X + C or GDP + Credit.GDP = GDIG and X are regularly reported in official national account statistics and one can work out P as follows:P = G + XFederal Deficit ↑ = Private Surplus ↑ = Risk Asset markets ↑

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Cash and selling real estate

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

Related Stocks

SymbolLast Price% Chg
XHB--
SPDR® S&P Homebuilders ETF
HD--
The Home Depot, Inc.
GLD--
SPDR® Gold Shares ETF
IAU--
iShares Gold Trust ETF
GLDM--
SPDR® Gold MiniShares ETF

Related Analysis