Advance Auto Parts: I Don't See Any Signs Of Demand Recovery

(7min)

Summary

  • Downgrade AAP to sell: recent data shows worsening store traffic, deteriorating consumer perception, and persistent market share losses versus peers.
  • Management's guidance and third-party data suggest demand momentum is weak, making FY25 same-store-sales growth targets unlikely.
  • The DIY segment remains a headwind, with macro pressures and tariffs adding complexity and likely margin pressure to the turnaround story.

Close-Up of Textured Car Tires Aligned in Outdoor Setting

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Investment Summary

My previous investment thought on Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP) was a hold rating because I wanted to see a proven and durable trend of same-store-sales growth [SSSG] and also for valuation to

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I focus on long-term investments while incorporating short-term shorts to uncover alpha opportunities. My investment approach revolves around bottom-up analysis, delving into the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of individual companies. My investment duration is the medium to long-term. Ultimately, I aim to identify companies with solid fundamentals, sustainable competitive advantages, and growth potential.

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