D-Wave Faces A Classical Reality Check

Summary

  • D-Wave Quantum's valuation is disconnected from fundamentals, with massive dilution, negative cash flow, and revenue reliant on one-off hardware sales.
  • Gate-based quantum competitors like IBM, Google, and IonQ are outpacing D-Wave technologically and commercially, threatening to relegate annealing to a niche.
  • Customer growth and recurring revenue remain weak for D-Wave, while peers are landing larger, multi-year contracts and integrating into cloud ecosystems.
  • Given limited adoption, relentless dilution, and existential technology risk, I expect QBTS to underperform quantum peers and tech indices over the next 12-24 months.

3D illustration of a working quantum computer. Quantum computing concept

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Intro

Retail investors are pouring into quantum-computing equities, but the shine can quickly fade once the numbers hit the tape. D-Wave Quantum (NYSE:QBTS) has enjoyed a spectacular share-price run in 2025, briefly eclipsing a $5 billion market capitalization despite

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