Okta: There's Fear On The Street - Buy It (Rating Upgrade)

Jun. 29, 2025 10:37 AM ETOkta, Inc. (OKTA) StockOKTA8 Comments

Summary

  • I am upgrading Okta to a 'buy' with a $126 price target, as the recent sell-off offers an attractive risk-reward for long-term investors.
  • Okta exceeded Q1 revenue and earnings guidance, with strong enterprise momentum, especially in Okta Identity Governance and Auth0 adoption.
  • Despite cRPO growth outpacing expectations, management kept FY26 guidance unchanged, reflecting caution amid macro uncertainty, leaving potential for upside if outperformance continues.
  • Given the current estimates for forward revenue and earnings growth, Okta's fundamentals remain strong, supporting a 28% upside potential from current levels based on my valuation model.

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Introduction & Investment Thesis

When I last wrote about Okta (OKTA), I downgraded the stock to a “hold” before its earnings, despite selecting it as my Cybersecurity pick at the

I am Amrita and I write primarily about growth software stocks. 

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Amrita runs a boutique family office fund in beautiful Vancouver, where she leads the investment strategy for the family fund. The fund's objective is to invest capital in sustainable, growth-driven companies that maximize shareholder equity by meeting their growth-oriented goals. In addition, she also started her own award-winning newsletter, The Pragmatic Optimist which focuses on portfolio strategy, valuation, and macroeconomics in concert with her husband Uttam Dey who is also a contributor on Seeking Alpha. Prior to cofounding her fund, Amrita worked for 5 years in high-growth supply-chain start-ups in downtown San Francisco, where she led strategy. During her time in the Bay Area, she also worked with venture capital firms and start-ups, where her efforts led her to grow the user acquisition business. During this time, she was introduced to investment portfolios and was able to maximize returns for clients during the pandemic. The cornerstone of Amritas work rests on democratizing financial literacy for everyone and breaking down financial jargon and complex macroeconomic concepts into formats that are easily digestible but more empowering than the typical investment thesis. Her newsletter has been featured as the Top Newsletter in Finance on popular newsletter platforms and she aims to bring her ideas to Seeking Alpha as well.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of OKTA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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