Tesla: Expect Q2 Fundamentals To Be A Disaster

Cavenagh Research
9.46K Followers

Summary

  • Tesla, Inc.'s core automotive business is deteriorating, with Q1 2025 results showing declining deliveries, revenues, and margins, and Q2 shaping up even weaker.
  • The current stock price is disconnected from fundamentals, driven by speculative enthusiasm for robotaxi potential, which contributes nothing meaningful to earnings today.
  • Loss of US EV tax credits and regulatory credit headwinds threaten billions in future profits, making consensus growth projections for 2026 unrealistic.
  • TSLA stock's valuation is far ahead of reasonable forecasts; even with optimistic assumptions, shares are overvalued by up to 100%. I maintain a Sell rating.

Tesla Cybertruck display at a dealership. Tesla offers the Cybertruck with driving range of up to 340 miles.

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A Disastrous Start In 2025…

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) entered FY 2025 clearly on the back foot, with first-quarter results underscoring cyclical headwinds in EV demand. For context, in Q1 2025, Tesla produced 362,000 vehicles and delivered 336,681

This article was written by

9.46K Followers
Experience as an investment analyst for a major BB-Bank, as well as private equity consultant for MBB. Currently working towards the CFA charter, having completed I&II. Passion for risk-assets (Growth, Contrarian, Emerging Market). Ex-colleague and close friend of Investor Express.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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