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The S&P 500 (SP500) is currently in the melt-up stage after the resilient first half of the year, and, based on my macro analysis, a major selloff is likely in the second half of the year.
S&P 500: The Melt-Up Stage, Bust Approaching
Summary
- The S&P 500 is in a melt-up stage, trading at a bubble-like valuation.
- The hard data is still not reflecting the net effects of policies in place, but the first sign of stagflation is likely to burst the bubble, sometimes in H2 2025.
- Thus, my recommendation is a Strong Sell, although the melt-up could continue.
Commodity Trading Adviser (CTA), member of National Futures Association. Professor of Finance, research on Global-macro issues. Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Corporate Accounting and Finance.
Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of SPX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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