Neurocrine Biosciences: Still A Buy After 30% Uplift Since My Last Coverage

Summary

  • Neurocrine's core assets, INGREZZA and Crenessity, can drive strong revenue growth with robust patent protection and significant market underpenetration.
  • The pharma's pipeline is advancing, with multiple late-stage studies in major depressive disorder and schizophrenia offering substantial upside if successful.
  • Competition remains a risk, but INGREZZA and Crenessity face limited near-term threats; pipeline assets could add billions in value if data is positive.
  • Despite a 30% run-up since my last coverage, I still see Neurocrine as undervalued, with the potential for a 20%+ share price increase and possible acquisition interest.
  • In this post, I review my prior thesis, discuss Q1 earnings, highlight upcoming catalysts, and explain why I believe a >$20bn valuation would not necessarily flatter NBIX.
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Klaus Vedfelt

Investment Overview - Brief Summary Of My Last Neurocrine "Buy" Call

In my last note on Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:NBIX) for Seeking Alpha back in mid-April, I gave the San Diego-based Biotech's stock a "Buy" recommendation, sensing a contrarian trade opportunity, with

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This article was written by

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Edmund Ingham is a biotech consultant. He has been covering biotech, healthcare, and pharma for over 5 years, and has put together detailed reports of over 1,000 companies. He leads the investing group Haggerston BioHealth.

The group is for both novice and experienced biotech investors. It provides catalysts to look out for and buy and sell ratings. It also provides product sales and forecasts for all the Big Pharmas, forecasting, integrated financial statements, discounted cash flow analysis and market by market analysis. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in NBIX over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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