Airbnb: Expansion Plans Won't Meaningfully Change The Company's Trajectory

Richard Durant
8.93K Followers

Summary

  • Airbnb's Q1 results were soft, but this was mainly due to FX headwinds and calendar effects, rather than a deterioration in the core business.
  • The initially announced expansion initiatives are underwhelming, and are unlikely to significantly boost growth or alter Airbnb's long-term trajectory.
  • Despite near-term macro risks and margin pressures from growth investments, Airbnb's growth outlook and strong cash flows should result in solid returns longer term.
  • The company's near-term performance likely hinges on economic conditions and the success of its new business initiatives, though.
Unrecognizable couple arriving at the accommodation with their suitcases

SrdjanPav

Airbnb's (ABNB) share price has rebounded in recent months, although this has been driven by general market strength rather than anything company specific. While Airbnb's first quarter results were soft, much of this can be attributed to foreign exchange headwinds, the leap

This article was written by

8.93K Followers
Richard Durant is the leader of Narweena, an asset manager focused on finding market dislocations that are the result of a poor understanding of a businesses long-term prospects. Narweena believes that excess risk adjusted returns can be achieved by identifying businesses with secular growth opportunities in markets with barriers to entry. Narweena’s research process is focused on company and industry fundamentals with the goal of uncovering unique insights. Narweena has a high risk appetite and a long-term horizon, in pursuit of stocks that are deeply undervalued. Coverage tilts towards smaller cap stocks and markets where competitive advantages are not obvious.Investments are driven by a belief that an aging population with low population growth and stagnating productivity growth will create a different opportunity set to what has worked in the past. Many industries are likely to face stagnation or secular decline, which counter-intuitively may improve business performance if competition decreases. Conversely, other businesses are likely to face rising costs and diseconomies of scale. In addition, economies are becoming increasingly dominated by asset light businesses, and the need for infrastructure investments is declining over time. As a result, a large pool of capital is chasing a limited set of investment opportunities, which is driving up asset prices and compressing risk premia over time.Durant has undergraduate degrees in engineering and finance from the University of Adelaide (Honors) and an MBA from Nanyang Technological University (Dean’s Honors List). He has also passed the CFA exams.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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