BlackJack3D
I have consistently covered Bitcoin (BTC-USD) with a bull thesis on Seeking Alpha, most recently describing how a US sovereign debt crisis might act as a catalyst, drawing some parallels with Japan and Italy and
Bitcoin: An On-Chain Analysis Of Ownership And Behavior
Summary
- Bitcoin's transparent yet anonymous blockchain is at the base of its potential as a global reserve asset, balancing traceability and privacy for long-term holders.
- On-chain data shows declining exchange balances and stable active addresses, supporting my thesis that Bitcoin is increasingly held for long-term reserve purposes.
- Ownership analysis reveals about 40% of Bitcoin is traceable, with significant institutional and government holdings, but risks remain from unknown or dormant wallets and some of my assumptions.
- Despite short-term volatility and risks, I maintain a STRONG BUY rating, viewing Bitcoin as an asymmetric bet with long-term upside toward gold-level market capitalization.
I either put my money into low cost funds or in single stocks that (I think) are asymmetric bets. My portfolio is roughly 50/50 between the two. I like to write about Macro and Fundamentals, with the (painful) awareness that Momentum and Sentiment are what really matters. That’s the reason I never try to time the market and I only buy stocks if I am willing to hold them for at least 10 years.When it comes to fundamentals, I think everybody knows the market is forward looking, but few truly understand what that means. I don’t look at a P/E number and decide to buy if a stock is “cheap”. I see markets as literally just the meeting point between demand and supply. Predicting human behavior is the key.That’s why I always try to understand what the market is seeing in a stock beyond the numbers, which often implies trying to understand sectors, industries and long term growth trends. My approach requires ingenuity, curiosity and a good dose of naivete, as well as being comfortable in (sometimes) going against the current.I am currently bullish AMD, PLTR, TSLA, broad US equities and Bitcoin. I am based in Geneva, Switzerland (hence my SA name) and I have a Master’s Degree in Business. If you are looking for daily macro, geopolitics & investing nuggets, you can follow me on Twitter @GenevaInvestor. Friend "Rex Investing" is also a contributor to Seeking Alpha. All opinions and analysis are exclusively my own.
Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BTC-USD, IBIT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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