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Consensus expectations
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to report the June CPI inflation data on July 15th. The consensus expectations are that:
- The core CPI inflation to increase by 0.3% on a monthly
June CPI Report To Show First Signs Of Tariff-Related Inflation
Summary
- June CPI is expected to show the first signs of tariff-driven inflation, with consensus expectations for core CPI at 0.3% MoM and an increase in annual core CPI to 3%.
- The macro environment is stagflationary, with tariffs, higher commodity price rises, and a weaker dollar all pushing inflation higher into 2025 and 2026.
- Higher than expected June core CPI could burst the stock market bubble.
- However, even as expected, June inflation readings will likely keep the Fed cuts off the table, with inflation starting to rise above 3%.
Commodity Trading Adviser (CTA), member of National Futures Association. Professor of Finance, research on Global-macro issues. Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Corporate Accounting and Finance.
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