Lithium Americas: Navigating Thacker Pass Construction To Profitability

Summary

• Lithium Americas is developing Thacker Pass, the largest lithium-clay deposit in the U.S., with $2.26B in secured funding and strong support from GM and the Department of Energy.
• Base NAV valuation yields $510M for Lithium Americas, assuming 40,000 tons/year, $9,500/t lithium price, and 15% discount rate, reflecting both technical realism and financial conservatism.
• Significant upside exists if lithium surpasses $13,000/t, but risks include construction delays, cost overruns, trade restrictions, and sustained low lithium prices.
• Given current execution progress and robust funding, a hold rating with positive bias is warranted as Lithium Americas transitions from construction to production readiness.

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Investment Thesis

Lithium Americas (NYSE:LAC) is focusing its strategy on the development of Thacker Pass, the largest lithium-clay deposit in the US, with financing secured at $2.26B, including investment from GM and support from the Department of Energy. In

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.