Andy Feng
Introduction
It feels like every time NIO (NYSE:NIO) gives investors a bit of hope, something comes up, and the stock can’t make a meaningful breakout. June was a good month. They delivered 24,925 vehicles, that’s
Don't Let This Rally Fool You, NIO Still Has A Guidance Problem
Summary
- NIO's recent delivery growth and ONVO L90 launch sparked excitement, but underlying financial and guidance issues remain.
- In my opinion, management's guidance is unrealistic, with 2025 delivery targets far beyond current capabilities.
- Financials remain deeply negative, with high cash burn, poor margins, and low institutional ownership signaling lack of confidence in a turnaround.
- While new models and battery swap deals offer hope, I do not see this as the start of a sustainable recovery—trading opportunities may exist, but not long-term value.
I’m passionate about finance and investing, focusing on business analysis, fundamental analysis, valuation, and long-term growth, especially in sectors like AI, fintech, finance and tech. I study finance and economy and have hands-on experience in equity research, financial modeling, and creating investment content. I actively analyze publicly traded companies with a focus on business models, earnings performance, and competitive positioning. I also run a finance-focused YouTube channel called “The Market Monkeys”, where I share my thoughts on investment strategies, earnings reports, and market trends. I joined Seeking Alpha to contribute thoughtful, research-backed analysis that helps other investors make better decisions. My goal is to offer clear, unbiased insights into companies' strengths, risks, and valuation to help readers to build their unique opinion and investment strategy.
Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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