JD.com Has An Involution Problem

Jul. 18, 2025 11:05 AM ETJD.com, Inc. (JD) Stock, , , 1 Comment
MacroGirl
1.7K Followers

Summary

  • JD.com boasts strong finances, solid earnings, and a low valuation, yet its stock price remains depressed due to China's challenging retail environment.
  • Intense price competition and deflation in China are weighing on margins and consumer demand, despite government pledges to address these issues.
  • Beijing is playing the long game, so any policy changes to support consumption and tackle involution may take time to impact JD's performance.
  • I rate JD a 'hold' for now, with $26 as a potential buy-in level, anticipating a more favorable macro backdrop in 2026.
Young businessman sleeping on the floor

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JD.Com (NASDAQ:JD) is an attractive stock. 9 out of the last 10 Seeking Alpha articles have rated it a "buy" or "strong buy" and only two contributors have rated it a "sell" in the last three years. It's hard to argue with the consensus, but its performance does

This article was written by

1.7K Followers
My approach is long-term and I focus on investing in macro ideas through low risk ETFs and CEFs. I have traded stocks and currencies for nearly ten years and currently run a family fund with my partner and fellow SA contributor Andrew McElroy. I also invest in real estate and am a freelance writer and contributor to Matrixtrade.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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