Geospace: Attractively Priced, Despite Near-Term Macro Concerns (Rating Upgrade)

Richard Durant
9.04K Followers

Summary

  • The award of a major reservoir monitoring contract has helped to improve investor sentiment in recent months, although much of the initial share price boost has now reversed.
  • Geospace's Smart Water business continues to deliver strong revenue growth, providing diversification and a margin tailwind.
  • While potentially low probability outcomes, there are also border security and carbon capture opportunities that could boost Geospace's business.
  • Macro concerns and the recent poor performance of the core seismic business have contributed to the market significantly undervaluing the Smart Water business.

seismic service vessel Ocean Fortune

Bjoern Wylezich/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Geospace's (NASDAQ:GEOS) stock has been under pressure in recent quarters, due largely to persistent weakness in the company's ocean bottom node rental business. Geospace's smart water segment is growing though, and the company recently landed

This article was written by

9.04K Followers
Richard Durant is the leader of Narweena, an asset manager focused on finding market dislocations that are the result of a poor understanding of a businesses long-term prospects. Narweena believes that excess risk adjusted returns can be achieved by identifying businesses with secular growth opportunities in markets with barriers to entry. Narweena’s research process is focused on company and industry fundamentals with the goal of uncovering unique insights. Narweena has a high risk appetite and a long-term horizon, in pursuit of stocks that are deeply undervalued. Coverage tilts towards smaller cap stocks and markets where competitive advantages are not obvious.Investments are driven by a belief that an aging population with low population growth and stagnating productivity growth will create a different opportunity set to what has worked in the past. Many industries are likely to face stagnation or secular decline, which counter-intuitively may improve business performance if competition decreases. Conversely, other businesses are likely to face rising costs and diseconomies of scale. In addition, economies are becoming increasingly dominated by asset light businesses, and the need for infrastructure investments is declining over time. As a result, a large pool of capital is chasing a limited set of investment opportunities, which is driving up asset prices and compressing risk premia over time.Durant has undergraduate degrees in engineering and finance from the University of Adelaide (Honors) and an MBA from Nanyang Technological University (Dean’s Honors List). He has also passed the CFA exams.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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