Prepare Before The Market Makes Its Move

Aug. 04, 2025 11:49 AM ETS&P 500 Index (SP500), SPX, DJI, NDX, SPY, DIA, QQQ, IVV, VOO, IWM, , , , , , , , , 10 Comments
Yiannis Zourmpanos
11.06K Followers

Summary

  • The Fed held rates at 4.25%–4.50%, but futures price in one to two 25 bps cuts by year-end.
  • Q2 earnings surged +10.3% YoY, with 80% of S&P 500 companies beating EPS estimates and broad sector participation.
  • July’s weak jobs report added only +73k jobs, with unemployment rising to 4.2%, the highest in over a year.
  • The S&P 500 trades above key MAs, with support at 6313, 6200, and RSI overbought >75, signaling a pullback risk.
  • Tech remains dominant, but small caps and value stocks show signs of rotation amid improving market breadth and falling inflation.

Generic Chart

JacobH

Introduction: A Market at the Crossroads

The second half of the year 2025 is set to prove another defining moment for the S&P 500 (SP500), (SPX), (NYSEARCA:SPY), (NYSEARCA:VOO). Following a Q2

This article was written by

11.06K Followers
Hi, I'm Yiannis. Spotting winners before they break out is what I do best.Experience: Previously worked at Deloitte and KPMG in external/internal auditing and consulting. Education: Chartered Certified Accountant, Fellow Member of ACCA Global, with BSc and MSc degrees from U.K. business schools. Investment Style: Spotting high-potential winners before they break out, focusing on asymmetric opportunities (with at least upside potential of 2-3X outweighing the downside risk). By leveraging market inefficiencies and contrarian insights, we seek to maximize long-term compounding while protecting against capital impairment.Risk management is paramount—we seek a strong margin of safety to protect against capital impairment while maximizing long-term compounding. Our 4-5 year investment horizon allows us to ride out volatility, ensuring that patience, discipline, and intelligent capital allocation drive outsized returns over time.Investment Methodology: Identifying High-Conviction Opportunities1️⃣ Leadership & Management Analysis • Proven track record in scaling businesses. • Smart capital allocation and insider ownership. • Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance. 2️⃣ Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning • Strong technology moat and first-mover advantage. • Network effects that drive exponential growth. • Market penetration in high-growth industries. 3️⃣ Financial Health & Risk Management • Sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow. • Strong balance sheet and long-term survival runway. • Avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness. 4️⃣ Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward • Revenue multiples vs. peers and DCF modeling. • Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis. • Ensuring downside protection with massive upside. 5️⃣ Portfolio Construction & Risk Control • Core Positions (50-70%) – High-confidence, stable plays. • Growth Bets (20-40%) – High-risk, high-reward opportunities. • Speculative (5-10%) – Moonshot disruptors with massive potential.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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