Shares of Amarin Corporation PLC (NASDAQ:AMRN) appear to be attractively priced ahead of several major developments that could move the stock price in the coming month. We outline herein what may be moving the stock in the coming weeks and suggest strategies to trade these events.
When we last worte about AMRN, we suggested that AMRN's stock price would trend lower with a target range between $12.50 and $12. This price range was hit yesterday and signals an entry point for investors wishing to speculate on the NCE decision and a buyout or partnership as AMRN's go-forward plan for Vascepa.
Patience on Patents
In our last article, we expressed a view that, since FDA has twice deferred the Vascepa new chemical entity (NCE) decision, AMRN's evolving patent situation may be affecting the decision favorably. In the following days, analysts like John LeCroy of MKM partners and Jason Napodano of Zack's Investment Research expressed similar views on this matter.
The table below summarizes changes in the AMRN patent situation to date
Amarin: Status of Pending Patents as of 9/26
| Application Number | Status | Status Date |
| 12/702,889 | Final Data Capture | 9/25/12 |
| 13/282,145 | Remanded to TC/Printer Rush | 9/26/12 |
| 13/349,153 | Final Data Capture | 9/25/12 |
| 13/284,408 | Application Ready for Issue | 9/19/12 |
| 12/769,885 | Final Data Capture | 9/19/12 |
Applications '145 and '408 are further behind than the other 3. Final data capture is the phase where notice of issuance is generated and sent to the applicant. Note that, application '885 was sent to final data capture twice - first on 9/7 and again on 9/19. It is unclear from available information exactly why the application was sent twice.
The final data capture phase generally takes 5 weeks until formal patent issuance. However, usually within 7 to 10 days (within the first 2 weeks), the applicant is sent the
