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Is the bottom in?
That was fast. The benchmark S&P 500 (SP500) nearly fell into a bear market (down 20% from all-time highs) just two weeks ago, but a new shift in market direction has been happening almost as quickly as it started. Over the past 12 trading sessions, outsized moves have been bolstered by easing tariff talk and trade policy. On Thursday, the S&P 500 even finished at a level 10% higher than its recent low, marking a recovery that some define as an exit from correction territory.
Quote: "A positive trade headline a day keeps the bears away. Today was another day where investors used any positivity they could find to buy stocks, as it becomes increasingly clear the United States and China will be forced to cut a deal, as the de-facto trade embargo is hurting trade flows to an unsustainable extent," Leo Nelissen, part of SA Investing Group iREIT+HOYA Capital, told Seeking Alpha.
"While this also means that any negative headline could cause a substantial pullback, it's good to see that willingness to take risks has returned. As long as fundamentals refrain from pointing at a recession, we will likely see more upside in the days ahead."
China mulls exempting select U.S. goods from 125% tariffs
Bessent sees trade war with China de-escalating
Are things speeding up? It doesn't just seem that trading activity has been moving at a faster pace since the COVID boom... it actually is. Summer 2023 was the last time the S&P 500 entered correction territory and the index recovered from its bottom in only 24 days. Historically speaking, it has taken 133 days for the S&P to find a bottom after falling into a correction, according to data from CFRA Research that goes back to the end of WWII.
What else is happening...
Key takeaways from Alphabet's (GOOGL) Q1 earnings.
Waymo robotaxis available for personal ownership?
Intel (INTC) slumps on outlook and spending targets.
China plans to exempt select U.S. goods from 125% tariffs.
Apple's (AAPL) manufacturing shift to India presents hurdles.
7-Eleven owner eyes cost control amid tough retail backdrop.
Trump moves to fast-track approval for energy projects.
New executive order on deep-sea mining of critical minerals.
U.S. arms package for Saudis might be valued at over $100B.
India, Pakistan suspend key treaties after Kashmir terror attack.
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +1.9%. Hong Kong +0.3%. China -0.1%. India -0.7%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris +0.4%. Frankfurt +0.5%.
Futures at 7:00, Dow -0.6%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq -0.4%. Crude -1.3% to $61.96. Gold -1.2% to $3,310.10. Bitcoin +1.4% to $93,808.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 bp to 4.29%.
On The Calendar
Companies reporting today include AbbVie (ABBV) and Phillips 66 (PSX).
See the full earnings calendar on Seeking Alpha, as well as today's economic calendar.
