Goldman Sachs trims its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 30%

Jun. 12, 2025 11:02 AM ETS&P 500 Index (SP500), SPY, SH, VOO, DJI, COMP:IND, IVV, SDS, RSP, SSO, UPRO, SPXUBy: Sinchita Mitra, SA News Editor16 Comments
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There is now a 30% chance of the U.S. economy facing a recession, as the effect of tariffs on the economy is now perceived to be smaller, according to Goldman Sachs.

Goldman Sachs' earlier 12-month recession probability was at 35%.

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