By Michael Kanellos
The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its annual report Wednesday, and it predicts we're in a heap of trouble, people.
The world will need to invest $26.3 trillion between now and 2030 to boost energy supplies to meet an expected 45 percent increase in energy demand in that year from today's level. That's over $1 trillion a year and lags in investment could cause crunches in supply and price spikes (see IEA report).
Greenhouse gases are going to be difficult to contain. To stabilize CO2 concentrations at 550 million parts per billion, far higher than today's 380 ppm-ish level, will require an additional $4.1 trillion invested in solar, wind, nuclear and other clean sources of electricity, the report said. That rise in CO2 concentrations, however, will lead to a 3 degree Celsius rise in average global temperatures. Coal will be the fastest growing fuel in absolute terms during the same period, and gas will remain the staple fuel for transportation. Fossil fuels will still likely account for 80 percent of the world's energy, only slightly down from earlier projections.
To keep greenhouse gases down to 450 ppm, which would only cause a 2 degree Celsius hike in average temperature, will require $9.1 million in investment.
On the positive side, increased energy efficiency could also save $7 trillion in fuel costs. A slower economy and move to alternative fuels is also crimping the rising demand for petroleum. The IEA now expects worldwide demand for oil to come in at 106 million barrels per day in 2030, 10 million less than last year. Currently, the world consumes about 85 million barrels a day.
Nonetheless, we're on a collision course with ourselves.
"Current trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable –environmentally, economically and socially – they can and must be altered," said Nobuo
