This is one of those "the market will either go up, down, or sideways" posts. Read no further if that infuriates you.
The number of stock market bears seems to get smaller every day. It seems as though every new survey of market strategists and fund managers by publications like Barron's and USA Today says that now is the time to buy stocks, at least until March. We hit bottom in November, and now we're going to get a good bounce. Anchors on CNBC are reporting the folklore that an up January means an up year. Others are saying an up close on the first trading day of the year means an up year.
"All the bad news is priced in," "there are trillions of dollars on the sidelines, just waiting to get in," they've said everyday on the financial channels for the past two years. It is bound to be right eventually. Are they right this time? Who knows.
But even I feel more optimistic (which I view as a bearish signal). Despite almost daily bad news, the market is, as of writing, up near 20% since the November low, and many stocks still look tempting. Blue chips are sporting dividend yields not seen in a long time. The last two years' star stocks are trading substantially below their highs. How can investors not rush in?
Everyone seems to agree on two things: stocks should rally and there's a bubble in Treasuries.
When it comes to the markets (stocks, economy, etc), when everyone agrees on something, it usually turns out to be wrong. The greater the optimism, the greater the fall. The internet bubble, the housing and credit bubble, and the notion that investing in China was safe until the Olympics are examples.
There's plenty
