SPYB: This Buyback ETF Doesn't Pan Out

Summary

  • Provides a chart that may surprise many investors.
  • Gives a Main Street analyst's viewpoint on buybacks.
  • Analyzes a buyback ETF and compares it to various S&P index ETFs.
  • Explains why you maybe at a disadvantage by investing in buybacks.

Recently a client sent me the following chart comparing the performance of companies in the S&P 1500 Index (ITOT) that had buyback programs in place vs. those that did not.

I am sure many of you are surprised by the facts in the chart above, but being a Main Street analyst I was not as much, as I am not a big fan of buybacks to start with. I can say that because it is my belief that when a company buys back its shares (in the majority of cases) it is using money that could have been better put to use elsewhere. By elsewhere, I mean investing in potential growth opportunities (in order to grow the business on Main Street) or buying out a competitor and moving towards the ultimate goal of every successful company = economies of scale.

In this zero to negative interest rate environment things have gotten so pathetic that some CEOs can't resist the temptation of borrowing hand over fist in order to buy back as much of the company's shares as possible. This behavior should be of concern to the investor, as this is usually done to either mask poor performance (such as declining profits or revenue) or to cover the large stock options being awarded to management. In some cases buying back stock can be beneficial, but CEOs borrowing money to buy back stock is like you taking on credit card debt in order to pay down your mortgage, even though you may have a lot of cash in your savings account. Thus we have debt for debt's sake.

Debt can be a good thing if it is used to grow a business, such as building a new factory when demand for the company's products is high, but to borrow to buy back shares demonstrates

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Friedrich is the name given to our algorithm for analyzing companies that trade on the global stock markets. In creating Friedrich we concentrated on analyzing each company’s Main Street operations through various established ratios, along with our own unique ratios that we developed over the last 30 years. What we came up with is a final "Main Street" price per share based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which is a framework of accounting standards, rules and procedures defined by the professional accounting industry, which has been adopted by nearly all publicly traded U.S. companies. We feel that our Main Street price result is what each company would need to trade at in order to be attractive to a businessperson on Main Street looking to buy at a bargain.


Since the only constant in the universe is change, the results for each company fluctuate by varying degrees. No company is an island unto itself, but each operates in a world of constant change and at times in areas where Chaos is the norm. By analyzing a company’s Main Street operations over time, Friedrich is able to give the potential investor a decade long analysis (opinion) as well as offering a Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) analysis (opinion), as well. Thus our readers will not only get as close to a real time view of operations on Main Street as is possible, but then can measure the consistency of the company’s operations over time to determine if s/he should invest or not.



Through our Friedrich algorithm we can analyze ten years of Balance Sheet, Income Statement and Cash Flow Statement data for each company all at once and generate one final result in seconds. Friedrich was designed to be ultra-conservative and thus will cut zero slack to any company under analysis and will do so with zero emotion. Companies must be exceptional in order to get an attractive Main Street valuation and the ideal investments according to our backtesting are the ones that have been consistent over time.



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Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long AAPL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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