Ariad: The Storm Has Passed

Summary

  • Ariad has recovered from the huge October correction.
  • Many of the firm's issues are behind it because of a changing political climate and success with the FDA.
  • Ariad's future looks bright because of the firm's strong pricing power and robust pipeline.

Ariad (ARIA) had poor October performance because of government scrutiny from Senator Bernie Sanders and Rep. Elijah Cummings.

ARIA Chart

ARIA data by YCharts

Many felt Ariad would be forced to lower prices for P/R reasons or find itself suffering the same fate as firms like Valeant (VRX) or Mylan (MYL) - price hikes were the first breadcrumb on a trail into more controversy.

Increasing the price of a life-saving drug is a good motivator for lawmakers to look closer, and I don't think it is a coincidence that whenever pharmaceutical companies/managers gain attention for price 'gouging' they often find themselves on the hook for often unrelated lawsuits.

In Ariad's case, Sanders and Cummings issued an open letter to the firm asking for more information. They seemed to be suggesting problems with the way the firm was dosing Iclusig: allegedly raising the price while decreasing the dose, discontinuing a smaller does to force customers to buy a larger one.

However, all this appears to have blown over. The threat of a Martin Shkreli, Valeant or Mylan style controversy seems to be averted. I don't think they found any skeletons in Ariad's closet.

In addition, several bullish catalysts have emerged, completely defraying the company's losses during that month: The election of Donald Trump and progress with the FDA.

Catalysts

1. Trump

The election of Donald Trump to the U.S presidency was seen as a breath of fresh air for many in the pharmaceutical industry.

Hillary had favored increasing regulations on the sector in the wake of the high-profile price gouging controversies. Also, Hillary would have been pressured to regulate to placate her left-leaning base -many of whom were angry about her victory over Bernie Sanders in the primaries.

The truth is, Trump does not strike me as overly laissez-faire, but the market thinks he is

This article was written by

.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

More on ARIA