Tight Oil: Deep Water Driver?

Oct. 16, 2017 11:10 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 17 Comments
The Nattering Naybob
1.56K Followers

Summary

  • Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:
  • Last Time Out; Whip It; Tight Oil Economics; $50 Deepwater Breakeven.
  • 2016 support level; Offshore Breakeven; Onshore Breakeven.
  • Declining Deepwater Breakeven; Deepwater vs Tight Oil.

Last Time Out

In our last two missives, "Left And Citron: The Boy Who Cried Wolf?" and "Left, Lawyers, Grizzlies And Money, Oh My!," we Nattered regarding short activists, and their affect and effect on valuations.

Does one still wonder why Ubiquiti? why now? Or what underlying circumstances might have caused the UBNT, Citron situation to manifest itself? Or how investors could accidentally get caught up in such a series of unfortunate events?

As Violet Baudelaire said, there's always something. After traversing this long and dusty trail, replete with bear activists, shareholders, lawyers, grizzlies and money, Oh my! We are somehow reminded of this.

On Tuesday 09/12 Ubiquiti was $59.81, by that Friday it closed down 8% at $54.95. The following Monday 9/18, upon the release of Citron's report, the stock fell another 13% to $47.78. Ubiquiti has since rebounded to close at $60.32 on 10/14.

Apparently, in light of the Citron allegations and subsequent investor reevaluation of such, the stock has surpassed the pre-report valuation. This constitutes a 21% decline and rebound, or 42% valuation fluctuation in the space of 23 trading days.

One can only speculate as to who profited from the 8% "pre-report" decline and subsequent 34% in valuation fluctuations. Who knew? Moving West...

Speaking of fluctuating valuations and rebounds, we offer you now a little item called...

Whip It

"Whip It" is a new wave and synth-pop song by the American rock band Devo, featured on their 3rd album Freedom of Choice (1980). Due to its nonstandard tempo and strange lyrics,"Whip It" was not expected to be a hit.

It's hard to find anyone between the ages of 30 and 50 who does not have a vivid recollection of "Whip It," the kind of unusual track that made listeners want to bop their heads and break into

This article was written by

1.56K Followers
Ahead of the Curve, Agent of Change, Principal En-lightener, Purveyor of Darkness. An occasionally snarky contrarian covering government, corporate and monetary policy, financials, macro-economics, geo-politics, demographics and sports. Our trademark style, including an apt cultural icon as metaphor, a commanding sweep of the monetary scene, a disdain for "conventional" wisdom, a rejection of the "received" narrative, an insouciant flair, and a grounding humility about the efficacy of econometric forecasting methods, is by design. Our missives are an effort to assist in the critical thinking process which is an essential component of analysis. We attempt to encourage "outside the box" thinking by bringing together conventional and non mainstream information and ideas, then stirring the pot. The resulting controversy can spawn questions deserving of answers, stimulate much needed healthy discourse and hopefully, bring about positive change. Stupid is as stupid does - Forrest Gump; You can't fix stupid, no pill for it, it's fo'ever - Ron White; There are idiots, look around - Larry Summers ; And Now - The Gift... To avoid the pernicious global plague of stupidity, drink the Kool-Aid and become one of the innoculati. The Kool-Aid is available at [VIRUS REMOVED BY ECHELON UNDER ORDER OF PATRIOT ACT II ... transmission terminated]

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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