Ontario's Cannabis Plans May Favor Small Producers

J Cooper
10.63K Followers

Summary

  • Ontario's lack of large MOUs could favor smaller cannabis producers that weren't able to land MOUs from other provinces.
  • Canopy Growth jumped on news that it seeks listing on the NASDAQ.
  • The first Canadian cannabis stock listed on the NASDAQ, Cronos, jumped on its US listing, but I will be cautious about the stock.

** Most of the companies described herein - except Cronos (CRON) - trade primarily on Canadian exchanges. There are OTC versions listed for most of them, but the Canadian-traded equities will have better liquidity.

Recreational cannabis will be legal in Canada shortly after July 1, 2018 (perhaps in August). This has caused a gold rush of sorts into the industry as companies enter the space, rapidly expand production, and prepare for the beginning of what could be an $8 billion market, according to my own estimate.

"There's no exact date but, if you do the math, you'll see it won't be July 2018," [Canadian Health Minister Ginette] Petitpas Taylor told reporters Thursday. "Cannabis legalization is not about a date, it's about a process ... We want this process done as seamlessly as possible."

Cannabis will be legal nationally perhaps in August. However, distribution and retail will be handled at the provincial level rather than the national level. In most provinces, cannabis will fall under jurisdictional and distribution rules, similar to the rules currently in place for alcohol. Trina Fraser, a partner at an Ottawa law firm, maintains a very convenient summary chart of the rules in place in each particular province and territory.

Source: Trina Fraser's Twitter (link to PDF)

In four provinces so far, the government organization responsible for cannabis has ordered a large amount of cannabis from a small number of cannabis producers.

(Orders in kg/year) NFLD PEI NB QC Total
Total Orders 8,000 3,000 15,500 62,000 88,500
Canopy Growth (WEED.TO, OTCPK:TWMJF) 8,000 1,000 4,000 12,000 25,000
Hydropothecary (THCX.TO, OTC:HYYDF) 20,000 20,000
Aphria (APH.TO, OTCQB:APHQF) 12,000 12,000
MedReleaf (LEAF.TO, OTCPK:MEDFF) 8,000 8,000
Organigram (OGI.V, OTCQB:OGRMF) 1,000 5,000 6,000
Tillray (private) 5,000 5,000
Aurora (ACB.TO, OTCQX:ACBFF) 5,000 5,000
Zenabis (private)

This article was written by

10.63K Followers
I used to run a Marketplace service called The Growth Operation.  That service has subsequently been moved to Julian Lin, who is highly-skilled in analyzing and evaluating the cannabis investing marketplace.Julian has renamed the service to The Weed Investors, and it promises to continue to be a great resource and community for investors interested in this growing sector.  I am a contributor to Julian's The Weed Investors community.Thank you to each and everyone who previously subscribed to The Growth Operation.  I appreciate all of your support.-J. Cooper

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long NINE.V, THCX.V, HMMJ.TO. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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