The Trading Strategy That Beat The S&P 500 By 16+ Percentage Points Per Year Since 1928

Dec. 04, 2018 11:30 AM ETTLT, UPRO, TQQQ546 Comments
Logan Kane
26.18K Followers

Summary

  • The media loves to warn about the perils of holding 2x and 3x ETFs overnight. In the past, I too have been a vocal critic of certain leveraged ETFs.
  • After analyzing quantitative data on index leveraged ETFs, I found that they are severely misunderstood as trading instruments.
  • While they aren't suitable for many investors, everyone should understand the true risks and rewards of leveraged ETFs.
  • I'd also like to introduce a trend-following strategy that has shown significant alpha/excess returns when paired with leveraged S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ETFs.
  • The most widely studied implementation of the strategy beats the S&P 500 by an astonishing 16 percentage points per year.

Texas is famous for its tradition of risk-taking. Everything is bigger and bolder here. When Jerry Jones makes the commute from his house in Highland Park to AT&T Stadium to watch the Cowboys play, he doesn't take a car or a limo. He takes his helicopter. That's the Texas way.

I don't know if Jerry Jones likes to trade stocks or not, but I have found an intriguing strategy with a lot of alpha and a commensurate level of risk. If you have some money to play with and you're looking for the ultimate long and leveraged trade, I think I've found it. Try to read this article with an open mind and decide for yourself!

Laying the groundwork

Leveraged ETFs are vilified by the media for being instruments of massive wealth destruction. I've been a critic of leveraged ETFs in the past for many of the same reasons that the media at large has been critical.

The most popular warning tossed around in the media is that by doubling or tripling the daily return of the index (leveraged ETFs rebalance daily), you inevitably lose money to slippage/volatility drag.

For example, if one day the index goes down 10 percent and goes up 10 percent the next day, you haven't made your money back. Instead, for every 100 dollars you invested, you would lose 10 dollars the first day and make back 9 the second day. If you leveraged 3x the daily return, you would theoretically be down 30 percent on the first day and only up 21 percent the second day.

The media isn't entirely off-base with their criticism of leveraged products.

There are a lot of rigged products in the leveraged ETF space (everything tied to commodities, volatility products or short an index is inherently rigged against you), so you have

This article was written by

26.18K Followers
Author and entrepreneur. My articles typically cover macroeconomic trends, portfolio strategy, value investing, and behavioral finance. I like to profit from the biases and constraints of other investors.You can read some more of my work for free here.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long QQQ, TLT. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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