Understanding The Planet Fitness Trade

Summary

  • After the company reported earnings last week, we put a quick trade on the stock and we believe the stock is set up for another buy.
  • We looked at a number of valuation and growth metrics and believe the stretched valuation is more than justified when you factor in commensurate growth.
  • We project 30% growth in EPS to continue year-over-year.
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Planet Fitness (NYSE:PLNT) is a stock we took profits in last year, and have been just trading it here and there ever since. After the company reported earnings last week, the stock has pulled back following calls that the name is grossly overvalued. As such, we want to share with you our thoughts for an investment here once again. We think it can both be traded short term and invested in long term. Let us discuss the play we think you can make and the story here longer term.

Simply put, we think Planet Fitness is a cash cow. It offers very low membership rates. This often prevents cancellations, as even when cash flow is tight, these types of low dollar memberships are often the last to go. Sure, churn may be high within the first few months but after a year churn drops to ~2% (see link in opening paragraph regarding overvalued). Planet Fitness has an aggressive and wildly successful advertising campaign. It is becoming a household name thanks to its marketing team.

While Planet Fitness doesn't have global reach, its model is more of a social hangout spot with fitness undertones, rather than a serious gym, and that is why it works. It is cheap and it is for socialization, while having 'fun' working out. Sure, Planet Fitness runs fitness centers, but the business is a bit more involved than that. It needs to grow subscribers, but the money isn't made from dues. You see it also sells high-margin products (water, merchandise, etc.). While competition is severely stiff in this space, Planet Fitness continues to grow like wildfire. In fact, this is still one of the fastest-growing franchises in the nation. Eventual saturation could be an issue, but there is a lot of room for growth still in the United

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Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long PLNT. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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