Adverum Biotechnologies Trade Derisked After Huge Price Drop

Georgios Karas
44 Followers

Summary

  • Market overreacted to trial results.
  • Adverum Biotechnologies' stock presents a buying opportunity after the price sunk by 50%.
  • Money flows into the stock were overwhelmingly positive.

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On Sept. 12th, 2019, Adverum Biotechnologies (NASDAQ:ADVM) announced preliminary results from the OPTIC-1 Phase 1 trial, a gene therapy trial. As per the company announcement, the phase 1 trial results were positive: "Adverum Biotechnologies Reports Positive 24-Week Data from First Cohort of OPTIC Phase 1 Trial of ADVM-022 Intravitreal Gene Therapy to Treat Wet AMD." The market reaction? The stock tanked with more than 50%. So what happened?

Trial Background and Analysis

An interim analysis of cohort 1 (high dose gene therapy) at 24 weeks was presented. A few select slides will be commented on. Let us walk through the presentation.

The study is called OPTIC (trial code NCT03748784). It is a phase 1 study, meaning the primary objective is safety and tolerability of ADVM-022 (finding the right dosage for a subsequent phase 2 and phase 3 trial). Per writing of this blog the last trial protocol update was June 4, 2019. After researching the clinical trials archive site regarding study protocol amendments, we could confirm that the dosing regimen was already present in the very first submission. This negates the argument that the company reduced the dosage after the results were known.

The secondary objectives were vision, anatomy and need for rescue therapy. Vision was evaluated with BCVA (higher values are desired), anatomy was evaluated with CST (thickness, lower values are desired) and the need for reduce therapy was a binary yes/no choice (rescue injection with anti-VEGF, the current accepted treatment).

All patients had inflammation post-injection (which reminds us of other trials where inflammation

This article was written by

44 Followers
Medical Specialist with 25+ years of experience in healthcare sector and 10+ in trading. Titles: MD, PhD, MBA Specific expertise: clinical trials, statistics, money flow analytics (proprietary), integrating fundamental approach with market action. "Will the dogs eat the dog food?" or will the medical community adopt the new healthcare innovation?

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in ADVM over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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