American International Group: Good Enough For Me

WG Investment Research
8.25K Followers

Summary

  • AIG shares have performed well so far in 2019 but I believe that the stock still has room to run.
  • AIG reported Q3 2019 results that were well-received by the market. The company significantly missed the EPS estimate but the results were good enough for me (and others).
  • I plan to stay long AIG (the Tarp Warrants).

American International Group's (NYSE:AIG) stock has performed well so far in 2019, as AIG shares have outperformed the broader market by almost 20 percentage points over the last 11 plus months.

Looking back, however, the stock performance has not been anything to write home about. To this point, AIG shares have underperformed the S&P 500 over the last 3, 5 and 10-year periods.

But, as I previously described here, AIG's path forward is slowly becoming clearer under the newish leadership team and, in my opinion, the insurer's most recent operating results supports the thought that AIG is still worthy of investment dollars.

The Latest Results Were "Good Enough"

On November 1, 2019, AIG reported Q3 2019 results that missed the bottom-line estimate of $1.00 per share by a wide margin.

Source: Fidelity

The company reported Q3 2019 EPS of $0.56, which is a significant increase from the year-ago quarter.

Source: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation

Highlights from the quarter:

  • Total net investment income of $3.4B, which is consistent to the year-ago quarter
  • Net income increased by $1.9B to $648M, which was largely a result of an unfavorable charge taken in Q3 2018
  • Book value per share ($74.85) and adjusted book value per share ($57.60) increased by 15% and 5%, respectively, when compared to 12/31/2018

AIG shares were initially down a few percentage points after the company reported its Q3 2019 results but the stock has performed well over the last week.

The real standout for the quarter was the General Insurance division, as shown above by the $1.3B swing in adjusted pre-tax income. The division saw premiums decline YoY but catastrophe losses, net of reinsurance improved by slightly over $1B from Q3 2018.

Source: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation

Management has consistently talked about improving the company's underwriting profitability by focusing

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This article was written by

8.25K Followers
Our President and CIO is a CPA with experience in public accounting and the financial services industry. He earned his Master of Accountancy degree in 2008 and his B.S. in Business Management in 2007. He is also a Level III CFA candidate. He has been intrigued by the market from the start. Over the years, he has learned that long-term investing is a discipline that, if followed, will help contribute to building lasting wealth. As such, most of our articles will be about the investments that we plan to hold for at least 3 to 5 years, as long as the company's story does not change. As a Seeking Alpha contributor, our main goal is to write about the companies that are key to our portfolio with the hope of promoting discussion (for or against the investment) from others within the SA community.Please visit our website for more information about W.G. Investment Research LLC.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long AIG. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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