Performance Of Dow Components In 2019

Ploutos
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Summary

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average produced a 25.3% total return in 2019, its best return since 2017.
  • Capitalization-weighting the constituents instead of the Dow's price weighting would have produced 38.8% total returns, which would have been the best year since 1975.
  • Nine stocks make up half the Dow. Most Americans still refer to stock market moves in terms of the Dow, but is not representative of many portfolios.

In 2019, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) produced a strong 25.3% total return. Of the 30 constituents, 27 produced positive total returns. The tech heavyweights in this old Industrial gauge were the big winners on the year.

Performance of Dow Components in 2019The table below presents a more detailed look at performance with the 30 constituents in the index at the end of the year listed in descending order by their 2019 performance in the far right column. I have also used conditional formatting to highlight the differences in relative weights and market capitalizations.

Performance of Dow ConstituentsOne of the earliest takeaways should be that the two best performing constituents - Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) - are by far the largest companies by market capitalization. Together, these two constituents account for 30% of the combined market capitalization of this list, but account for just over 10% of the index weight.

Why is that? The Dow got its start in 1896 as a means for synthesizing the movements of industrial stocks into a single number. The index uses weights based on share price. Microsoft, which has a roughly $1.2 trillion market cap, has 7.6 billion shares outstanding. It could just as easily have 3.8 billion shares outstanding, its price would be $314 instead of $157, and its weight in the index would have been 7.5% instead of 3.75%. Given that it was one of the best performers in the index, a higher weight would have increased returns on the index. Microsoft would be worth the same, its capitalization would just be subdivided differently. If the Dow Jones Industrial Average had used each constituent's beginning of year market capitalizations, the total return would have been a whopping 39% instead of 25%. That theoretical return would have been the highest since 1975 for the Dow.

While its adjusted price-weighting

This article was written by

20.97K Followers
Institutional investment manager authoring on a variety of topics that pique my interest, and could further discourse in this online community. I hold an MBA from the University of Chicago, and have earned the CFA designation. My articles may contain statements and projections that are forward-looking in nature, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks, uncertainties and assumptions. While my articles focus on generating long-term risk-adjusted returns, investment decisions necessarily involve the risk of loss of principal. Individual investor circumstances vary significantly, and information gleaned from my articles should be applied to your own unique investment situation, objectives, risk tolerance, and investment horizon.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long SPY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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