Foot Locker: Alive, Kicking And Back In Value Investor Territory

Jan. 15, 2020 4:54 AM ETFoot Locker, Inc. (FL) StockFL2 Comments
Cameron Smith, CFA
2.99K Followers

Summary

  • Foot Locker's business is alive and kicking, with the latest Q3 2019 total sales up 3.9% and same-store sales up 5.7%.
  • Cash flows generated from operating activities continue to provide a great yield for shareholders around 13% at the current $39.10 share price.
  • Management is generously returning this cash flow yields to shareholders through the 3.9% dividend and plenty of share buybacks.
  • A zero-growth discounted cash flow implies an intrinsic value of $59.87 for a 35% margin of safety to the current $39.10 share price.

Foot Locker (NYSE:FL) is back in value territory at 8.4x TTM P/E and a 3.9% dividend yield. Since I last wrote about the company in 2017, when the price was around $40, the shares have had a wild ride, pushing above $60, only to come back down into value territory around that same $40 price. However, looking at share price alone neglects the fact that Foot Locker has repurchased approximately 23.4% of its shares outstanding since then to bring its diluted share count down to 107 million in the latest quarter from 132 million in Q3 2017. This means that while the share price is back around $40, investors are actually looking at a share that represents 23.4% more interest in the company's profits!

Results Still Standing on their Own

Foot Locker's results continue to stand on their own, in my opinion, in a world filled with e-commerce risks. The company's latest Q3 2019 results released back in November showed adjusted non-GAAP EPS increasing by 18.9% to $1.13 from $0.95 in Q3 2018 (GAAP EPS of $1.16 for Q3 2019 and $1.14 for Q3 2018). Total Q3 2019 sales increased by 3.9% to $1,932M, compared to $1,860M for the prior-year period. Foot Locker's gross margin rate also increased to 32.1% from 31.6% a year ago, while the SG&A expense rate stayed relatively flat at 21.3% of sales from 21.4% in the prior year.

The all-important same-store-sales (SSS) figure for retailers seems to be holding up as well. As can be seen in the graph below, with the exception of a 3.1% SSS decline in 2017, comparable sales have held up well over the past few years, with the latest Q3 2019 quarter showing an SSS increase of 5.7%.

Sourced from Foot Locker Investor Meeting presentation

Importantly, Foot Locker also continued to

This article was written by

2.99K Followers
Through always enjoying the concepts of value creation and business management it has allowed me to explore potential investments at an academic and strategic level. My investment ideas are presented through two sides; with the most important being financial performance and the second most important being valuation. In my opinion, if a company does not meet certain financial criteria, a valuation of that company can only mean something if you are investing in the senior debt at best or if you are purely speculating at worst. Focusing on return on invested capital (ROIC), I classify potential investments as either long-term/indefinite investments, medium-term investments, or value traps. 1) Long-term/Indefinite: ROIC of greater than 9% and able to grow intrinsic value 2) Medium-term: ROIC of 6 – 9% and able to maintain intrinsic value. 3) Value Traps: ROIC of less than 6% and not able to meet their cost of capital My investing philosophy stems from Warren Buffett’s focus on long-term moats and value creation while expanding to include potential growth opportunities from the approach of Peter Lynch. At heart, I am a long-term investor that looks to buy value opportunities at a 30 per cent discount to intrinsic value with the potential to earn over 9 per cent return on equity (ROE) adjusted for the equity value per share that is paid at purchase. I believe growth is always a subjective variable but can be estimated through a product of retained earnings and the companies return on equity given the variability of both in the past decade.Disclaimer: While the information and data presented in my articles are obtained from company documents and/or sources believed to be reliable, they have not been independently verified. The material is intended only as general information for your convenience, and should not in any way be construed as investment advice. I advise readers to conduct their own independent research to build their own independent opinions and/or consult a qualified investment advisor before making any investment decisions. I explicitly disclaim any liability that may arise from investment decisions you make based on my articles.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long FL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I am long FL with an average cost base of $38.10. Disclaimer: While the information and data presented in my articles are obtained from company documents and/or sources believed to be reliable, they have not been independently verified. The material is intended only as general information for your convenience, and should not in any way be construed as investment advice. I advise readers to conduct their own independent research to build their own independent opinions and/or consult a qualified investment advisor before making any investment decisions. I explicitly disclaim any liability that may arise from investment decisions you make based on my articles.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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