AT&T: Well, That Was A Surprise

Jan. 29, 2020 2:49 PM ETAT&T Inc. (T) Stock, TBB, TBC StockT, TBB, TBC183 Comments

Summary

  • The stock is trading lower following its highly-anticipated Q4 earnings report.
  • We delve into the critical metrics that you need to be aware of and ultimately conclude that the company remains on pace to meet our expectations going forward.
  • The dividend is a primary concern with AT&T, and free cash flow indicates a payout ratio below expectations.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, BAD BEAT Investing. Get started today »

AT&T (NYSE:T) is currently trading lower following its highly-anticipated Q4 earnings report. This report comes after we highlighted the stock and discussed what we thought was key to look for in Q4. This morning we discussed the report at BAD BEAT Investing and overall we felt this was a pretty in-line quarter. The one surprise vs. what we were looking for was the higher than expected video subscriber losses. Big competition, more streaming options, and self cannibalization are all a reason for this. So what do we do now with the stock at $37 and change? Well as we know the stock has rallied hard in 2019 and has started to fade in the first month of January. We believe AT&T is a quintessential buy and hold as part of a well-diversified, high-yield retirement portfolio. It's not just a dividend name, though that's what it has been known for. The company is evolving. Major milestones such as the closing of the Time Warner deal are done. The company has started to really recognize its debt burden and begun to offload assets left and right, something we see as vital to the stock's success. All the while it has continued to compete as a global telecommunications giant known for its healthy dividend yield. We are looking to add in the $36 range if possible, and are continued buyers because of strong performance. There are key strengths and weaknesses to be aware of, let us discuss.

Top-line pressure remains

Revenues had begun to flatten for the company in recent quarters until Time Warner's assets were brought under the AT&T umbrella. We are seeing the positive impact, but revenues in Q4 showed slight contraction from a year ago:

Source: SEC Filings, graphics by BAD BEAT Investing

All in all, our revenue expectations were slightly

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Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long T. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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