New Oriental Education: Strong Growth, Rising Profitability, And Attractive Valuation

Summary

  • New Oriental Education is one of the top players in private educational services in China, an industry with abundant potential for growth.
  • The company is delivering accelerating revenue growth and profit margins are expanding.
  • The stock is very reasonably priced considering the company's growth prospects.
  • The short-term impact of the coronavirus, regulatory uncertainty, and a dynamic competitive landscape are the main risk factors to watch.
  • Overall, the long-term investment thesis in New Oriental Education looks clearly strong.
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New Oriental Education (NYSE:EDU) is one of the leading players in private educational services in China. Education plays a central role in the Chinese culture, and the company is benefiting from strong demand tailwinds in the years ahead.

Source: New Oriental Education with data from Deutsche Bank

Competitor Tal Education (TAL) has been growing at a faster rate in recent years, and it has a stronger focus on K-12 after school tutoring services. But New Oriental is more diversified into different segments, and it has a slightly bigger revenue base, with $3.5 billion in revenue for New Oriental versus $3.2 billion in revenue for Tal over the past 12 months.

Market leadership and scale are major sources of competitive advantage for New Oriental. Brand recognition, reputation, and geographical coverage attract students in different categories, and the company has the resources to bring in the most talented professors and also to create industry-leading content and online capabilities.

By leveraging these advantages, New Oriental has been able to deliver outstanding revenue growth in the long term, both via organic revenue increases and through acquisitions.

There is no slowdown at sight looking at the most recent earnings report.

  • Total net revenue increased by 31.5% to US$785.2 million for the second quarter of the fiscal year 2020.
  • Total student enrollments increased by 63.3% year-over-year to approximately 3,789,200. This higher-than-normal increase in student enrollments is primarily due to the division of the autumn semester into two parts, meaning that the student enrollments are reported separately and fall into separate quarters.
  • Non-GAAP operating margin rose by an impressive 720 basis points.
  • Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.34 beating expectations by $0.13 per share.

Management has identified several main drivers behind the big increase in profitability last quarter. The new facilities built in the last

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Performance as of December 31, 2019

This article was written by

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Andres Cardenal, CFA, is an economist with 20 years working in investment research and strategy development for hedge funds, family offices and asset managers in the U.S. and Latin America.

He leads the investing group The Data Driven Investor, where he offers evidence-based analysis on Growth Stocks, Options Ideas for short-term consistent income generation, Macro analysis, Quant Portfolios for momentum and dividend investors and ETF strategies. The service features an active chat room and an engaged community of serious investors. Learn More.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in EDU over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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